Top 15 by breakout chance, 2026-27
Model ranks this fairly (0.74 of 1) · happens to 23% in a normal year · Gist breakout model, fit 2017-18 to 2024-25
Breakout: +5 minutes a game over last season, if he plays 20+ games. In past seasons, players given about 45% broke out 47% of the time. About 23% of players like these break out in a normal year. Hustle stats don't predict breakouts; age, minutes now and preseason minutes do.